| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Morgan State | 38-21 | 1575.0 | -46.6 | 1528.4 | 96.6% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Tulane | 31-33 | 1528.4 | +21.3 | 1549.7 | 23.9% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Auburn | 15-31 | 1549.7 | -9.1 | 1540.6 | 12.1% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Coastal Carolina | 20-38 | 1540.6 | -93.3 | 1447.3 | 80.4% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | North Texas | 22-36 | 1447.3 | +16.9 | 1464.2 | 16.5% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Troy | 24-31 | 1464.2 | -7.9 | 1456.3 | 46.9% |
| 9 | Oct 14 2025 | L | Arkansas State | 14-15 | 1456.2 | -1.4 | 1454.8 | 59.0% |
| 10 | Oct 23 2025 | W | Georgia State | 38-31 | 1454.8 | +6.5 | 1461.3 | 74.5% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Louisiana | 22-31 | 1461.3 | -22.1 | 1439.2 | 54.1% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | UL Monroe | 26-14 | 1443.0 | +8.1 | 1451.1 | 75.5% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Southern Miss | 42-35 | 1451.1 | +8.5 | 1459.6 | 52.1% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Texas State | 26-49 | 1459.6 | -20.4 | 1439.2 | 33.0% |