| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | SE Louisiana | 39-14 | 1511.0 | -16.4 | 1494.6 | 91.5% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | Tulane | 24-28 | 1494.6 | +7.4 | 1502.0 | 33.4% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Ohio | 41-36 | 1502.0 | +34.1 | 1536.2 | 48.9% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | Kentucky | 21-45 | 1536.2 | -36.1 | 1500.1 | 18.5% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | UL Monroe | 52-35 | 1500.1 | -14.4 | 1485.7 | 86.5% |
| 6 | Oct 8 2026 | W | Arkansas State | 56-49 | 1485.7 | +8.0 | 1493.8 | 59.7% |